The financial market enters the end segment of the year and, compared to a higher liquidity in the market and a growing demand for coverage, the dollar keeps continuity up, within the fleet provided by the Central Bank.
The dollar price has risen on average $ 1.01 (+ 2.6%) in the microcentre banks, a 39,52 pesos. It's about prices the highest in October 3.
It also advances 90 cents or 2.3% this Monday at Banco Nación, when it amounts to $ 37.60 for the purchase and $ 39.40 for sale.
On the wholesale market, the exchange rate advanced by 90 cents to 38,50 pesos for sale.
The North American currency is accumulating six growing days in the retail segment and five in the wholesale trade with an advance of 7.2%.
Why is the dollar rising? On the one hand, notes foreign exchange market agents a higher demand for coverage by institutional investors, already with the purpose of closing balances at the end of the year.
On the other hand, the exchange rate response responds gradually but continuously rate reduction reference in pesos. BCRA reduced liquidity bill yields (LELIQ) from 73.5% to 61.4% over the past six weeks.
Last week, the entity presiding Gudo Sandleris allowed releasing weights by partially renewing the maturity of the letters LEBAC, for more than 120,000 million pesos.
A report by Ecolatina She predicts that "at the beginning of December, the LELIQ rate would perpetuate the" floor "of 60%, when inflation expectations will show a second consecutive monthly decline."
This reduction would also respond to the seasonal adjustment in December Base Currency, with expansion around 7.5%"that" would allow the Central Bank to inject pesos into the market to meet the biggest needs of the month, "added Ecolatina.
In addition, there is the intention of the monetary authority to accompany an increase in the value of the currency while it remains within the limits Free floating tape which increases by 3% per month.
On this day, the "no intervention" area marks a "floor" of $ 35,893 and a "ceiling" of $ 46.45. Therefore, the price of the dollar is still closer to the planned floor than its ceiling.
"The dollar, the central thermometer on the market, continues to work as the lower exchange ratehe explained Nery Persichini, investment manager of GMA Capital. Ponderó also "the exchange rate decreased by 9% since the end of September.
However, Persichini warned that "the US currency could not have shown the recent healthy trend without the presence of a monetary policy contracts. Following a measurable but daring objective zero growth of the monetary base, BCRA regulates the amount of money in the economy, leaving it the interest rate is the adjustment variable".
A report by Economy and regions considered that "the interest rate will not fall either strong or fast" and that "there is the high interest rate for several months"He added that" later in time, the current bearish path will reverse and the rate will rise again. "