Friday , March 31 2023

The "bear" of the oil market was temporarily injured


Fuel prices have also fallen in price.

Fuel prices have also fallen in price. Photos and archives "Lietuvos žinių"

The oil market began to recover on Wednesday as it fell for a week and a half in Bear Bear. Apparently, we will soon feel at gas stations where fuel prices have fallen slightly over the last week. Market analysts promise a further rise in oil prices.

On global markets, on Nov. 15, the Brent oil price has already risen to $ 66 / barrel after a slight increase in yesterday's price. Until November 13, the price of this oil fell to $ 65.43 from $ 3 billion on October 3rd. Thus, over a month and a half, oil prices fell by 15%.

Estimates are not confirmed

The forecast that oil prices will continue to decline due to surplus supply is not confirmed. In recent days, causes of market recovery, or at least stabilization, are emerging. On Wednesday, November 14, Reuters reported that the cartel of oil-exporting countries and its allies (OPEC +) is considering cutting production by 1.4 million in 2019. Barrels per day. In October, according to the International Energy Agency (TENA), nearly 33 million people were extracted daily. Barrels.

Saudi Arabian Saudi energy minister Khalid al-Falih said Monday that the OPEC and Cartel allies have agreed that in order to balance the market, it is necessary to reduce oil supply by about 1 million in the coming years. barrels per day compared to October. "We see the risk of stock growth if we do nothing and we can not afford it. Obviously there will be a need to reduce demand in this case," Reuters said.

Therefore, oil prices should rise again, but it is doubtful whether analysts' forecasts in October will prove to reach $ 100 a barrel by the end of the year. Now, it's about $ 80-82, and the average is $ 75 more.

OECD countries will reduce production in 2019, which may not be enough to reduce supply more. This will be decided during the December cartel meeting. It seems that in the near future it will be necessary to take into account the oil-specific wars between OPEC and the United States. The cartel and its allies intend to cut production, but the US Energy Information Board (EIA) predicts 7.9 million in December. Extended oil extraction per day. US production has already surpassed the former Saudi Arabian leader. In addition, Washington has promised that it will not impose sanctions on Iran and that it will be able to freely trade oil.

Market analysts point out that the decline in the oil market, seen for a week and a half, reminds us of 2015, when oil shrinks rapidly, with a surge in shale oil production in the US. Oil prices fell this year only in July.

Fuel is a bit cheaper

As oil prices fell, the prices of wholesale and then petroleum products dropped. For example, Orlen Lietuva AB dropped from 1,125 to 1,09 euros per liter between October 29 and November 14, and A95 gasoline from 1,104 to 1,052 euros.

Such trends have gradually expanded to fuel retail. The innovation is that gasoline and gasoline prices at gas stations are equal. This is typical for the heating season. Because diesel demand is rising at this time because it is used in many parts of the world as stove fuel.

In November, gas stations cost petrol at between 1.11 and 1.13 EUR, while diesel fuel costs 1.13-1.14 EUR. This situation is repeated by the practice of Estonian retail trade. For more than 10 years, petrol and diesel prices in the country were the same.

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