Saturday , August 13 2022

Final Week Autumn Internationals: Free Tips to Bet on Rugby


So here we are, the last weekend of a November episode, which brought amazing drama, overturning and transformation and, in general, positivity to the northern hemisphere.

All four home nations know about everything that has happened in the last three weeks, their result in this fourth weekend will determine the overall feeling of progress that will go into the Six Nations and, of course, a World Cup year.

They all need this weekend – one that is always the hardest to anticipate due to a combination of injuries, fatigue and rotation of teams that can make what happened during the run-up much little relevant.

England in Australia

A game that always feels like it could go in any way, rivalry and history between these two rugged nations, guaranteeing almost some kind of show.

This time, however, the analysis of shape and facts indicates a victory in England, and only the historian prevents me from being absolutely confident in Rose Rose by offering the big one.

As we discussed four discussion points in my week, Australia had a miserable year, sliding down the rankings. They seem to have lost their ego and trust that always led them to great performances when needed.

They lost to Argentina in the rugby championship and were lucky not to finish the bottom of the table; they suffered their first home game loss in Ireland and their first defeat in 14 test matches for Wales.

After a poor run from March to July, England in 2018 was rescued by the spell of November, with good performances against South Africa and New Zealand.

The average effort of the second row against Japan felt like a set in the back, but it will be the wake-up call that the entire crew needs this week and I expect England to be shot and ready to show a point.

They need a performance statement to launch them in 2019 and build the conviction that a World Cup victory is possible, and Saturday presents that chance.

England won the last five against Wallabies, marking more than 20 points in each, with the last two at Twickenham, gaining 24 points and 16 points respectively.

So with a clue in history – because it is still Australia – England to win 13 or more points to 6/4 shows the way to go and is preferred by 9/1 quote about a 21-25 point win , which is tempting the same.

Scotland / Argentina

After pushing South Africa so close to last week, you wonder how much it has brought out of Scotland. Also, after a rugby championship campaign and a mixed series in November that left Los Pumas in the tank?

Despite the defeat at Springboks, Gregor Townsend's side has been excellent at Murrayfield over the past two years, and is this record of origin that gives the most encouragement to those who support Scotland to win.

Scotland scored a comfortable victory of Argentina in the summer of 44-15, while they won their last shot on the Scottish ground in 2016 through a narrow margin of 19-16 thanks to a last-minute Greig Laidlaw penalty.

All he said, Townsend made eight changes for this, and I'm not convinced of the depth of this Scottish crew.

Argentina has a three-game match, but it includes a good fighting performance against Ireland, where it almost won, and a defeat in Australia, where it blew a decent ride home.

They made only two changes from the side that disappointed the loss in France, and this is just November 3 game, compared to the four in Scotland.

Scotland won the last four meetings, but the last two at Murrayfield were won by three and 10 points by the home side, and in 2014 in Córdoba the winning margin was only three points again.

Therefore, I will opt for Argentina to beat Scotland for the first time since the 2011 World Cup, with a best 9/4 win. You can cover your bets here and take Mario Ledesma's side on +6 handicap at 10/11 too – in one way or another, they have enough to justify their support.

Wales / South Africa

This is the game for Wales – wins and is steam ahead for six nations and a toll to win their first World Cup; lose and will remain questioning about their mentality, game plan, and execution against the best parts of the world.

As expected, coach Warren Gatland made 14 changes from the side that eventually pulled Tonga with a high score. He turns back to the T-shirt defeating his historic victory over Australia, with only Leigh Halfpenny wounded.

Wales is now pretty good physically and mentally to beat an excellent part of Springboks, but I'm afraid of their impulse with all these changes. Remember that they did not play the best team against Scotland in early November, so their "best" 15th played only in that important but tangled and under-performing victory against a drowning Australia.

Together with Ireland, South Africa was one of the teams in 2018.

I thought of all their Herculean efforts against England in the summer and the Rugby Championship, they would be a force spent in November, but that was not the case. They should have fought England, fought against France, and fought against a Scotland full of abilities.

Will this ultimately be the game in which fatigue collapses with them, or will it be able to make a huge effort yet to end the year in the style they will feel worth?

Draw moves in my mind, but only brave or crazy men call this in international rugby. So I will be semi-courageous and I will call at half time to 12/1 as the best bet.

Ireland / USA

Two teams in 2018 will meet on Saturday at the Aviva stadium, both having the same record – they have won 10, lost one.

Ireland has recorded its historic victory over New Zealand last weekend to confirm its position as a true World Cup competitor. But the US, determined to become a level 1 rugby nation, also had huge results, scowling Scotland in the summer and Samoa two weeks ago.

That has come at a cost, and the US has major injuries to it, and while Ireland is making big changes, it will still be too strong.

Ireland beat Italy in early November with 54-7 and the US could now claim to be at or better than the Italians now, after a series of mini-cartoons in the summer.

The Irish team is still good, but "weaker" than the one who beat Italy in America. So, in a game with little value, then the US handicap to +38 full-time points on 10/11 might be worth it.

Posted at 1445 GMT on 22/11/18.

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