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Most U.S. studies say uncontrolled climate change will significantly diminish the economy


President Trump insists climate change is not happening, but the US government says it is and is very bad.

26, 2018

5 minutes read

If there is no Herculean effort to immediately start reducing greenhouse gas emissions, climate change by the end of the century will cost the US economy hundreds of billions of dollars a year and diminish the size of the economy by 10% depending on the climate Major The study was launched and ignored by the Trump Administration.

If this is the first one you've heard of the report, which seems to be by design: It was released without a fanfare on the afternoon of Black Friday. The report estimates that by 2100, climate change will cost the US economy $ 141 billion from heat-related deaths, $ 118 billion from sea level rise, and $ 32 billion from infrastructure-related damage, among some of the costs. The United States report comes just one month after a bad report from the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which predicts serious global economic and humanitarian crises by 2040, without naming global "unprecedented" efforts to reduce emissions of carbon.

The Fourth National Assessment of Climate Change, mandated by the Congress to be issued and updated every four years, concludes that the effects of climate change are already taking place in extreme weather and severe cycles of drought and flood and will accelerate without a sudden reduction in emissions. The White House has highlighted the worrying report in a statement that says it relies heavily on the most extreme scenario.

The report states that the worst case scenario is to take no action to reduce emissions or to adapt the infrastructure for extreme weather conditions, which is in principle the Trump climate policy. Since taking office, President Donald Trump has begun the US withdrawal process. from the Paris climate agreement signed by almost every nation on the planet and cancels the Obama administration's rules to reduce emissions from coal-fired power stations and vehicle evacuation ducts. The chairman had no direct comment on the report, except the case note in a tweet was cold last week.

Related: UN warns climate change can cause us, but Nobel committee suggests pollution tax could save us

The report, which was written by over 300 scientists at 13 federal agencies, from the Department of Defense to the EPA, provides for "cascading impacts," because more severe weather crashes lead to infrastructure deterioration. Here are some extracts from the report that relate to the economy:

More frequent and longer power interruptions.

"The nation's energy system is already affected by extreme weather events and because of climate change it is expected to be increasingly threatened by more frequent and lasting power interruptions affecting critical energy infrastructure and creating imbalances in fuel availability and of demand ".

The seas that will rise will sink the ribs.

"The US coastal real estate market and public infrastructure are threatened by the continuing increase in flood frequency, depth and spread caused by rising sea levels, with a cascading impact on the bigger economy … Many individuals and communities will suffer financial consequences because major current floods lead to higher costs and lower property values. "

Cities will need to be rebuilt.

"The damage caused by extreme meteorological phenomena demonstrates the current vulnerabilities of urban infrastructure." With a long life, urban infrastructure must be able to withstand a future climate that is different from the past. future. "

Related: Hurricanes Irma & Harvey: Driving your business after the disaster

Transport will become much less reliable.

"More than 60,000 miles of US roads and bridges in coastal floodplain areas are clearly vulnerable to storms and extreme hurricanes that cost billions of repairs. … Ports, which serve as the starting point for 99% of US international trade, are particularly vulnerable to the climate impact of extreme weather events associated with rising sea levels and tropical storm activity. "

Many airports in coastal areas are also vulnerable, the report says.

Agriculture will become much more risky.

"Rising temperatures, extreme heat, drought, wildfire on the hayfields and heavy rains are expected to cause a growing disturbance in agricultural productivity in the US. Expectations are raising animal health challenges, declining crop yields and quality and changes in extreme events in the United States and abroad. "

And everything will happen simultaneously.

"The impacts of climate change and extreme weather on natural and built systems are often taken into account from the perspective of individual sectors: how does climate change affect water resources, the grid or the food system? None of these sectors, however, … management choices within a sector can have cascading effects on others. "

The report says it is late, but not too late, to avoid the worst result and to prepare for the changes that are already under way. It urges cities and states to incorporate forecasts for the growth of the seas and unfavorable meteorological conditions in planning, zoning and infrastructure investments, which very few now do. Finally, the North Carolina State Law explicitly prohibits climate change or sea level increase in terms of land-use planning. Similarly, it calls for fiscal and regulatory policies to accelerate the transition to renewable energy, which is directly contrary to Trump's management policies.

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