Thursday , January 21 2021

Tips for Week 10 NFL Tips: Good Trend for Steelers, Massive Mismatches, Weekly Teaser and More



Thursday night's play this week presents one of the best matches we've had the whole season because Panthers head for Pittsburgh to face Steelers in a two-loss battle. Players gathered at Panthers; after Westgate opened this line at Steelers -6.5 on Sunday night, they moved quickly to 5.5 in two hours, and at noon Steelers -4 on board. On Wednesday, the line made another move to Panthers, many cards making Steelers -3.5.

It's almost as if no one saw a Thursday game this season. The favorites are 7-2 ATS in Thursday's games this season, and the two losses come with a pair of warnings: One is Rams who closed a favorite of 7.5 points against the Vikings before winning seven. However, the Rams-7 was available for most of the week and you probably pushed it if you put the points in that one. The second game last week, while the line returned from 49ers -2.5 to Raiders -1.5 Thursday after it was announced as C.J. Beathard would miss the game. But Nick Mullens turned out to be able to roll through Swiss Raiders' cheese.

If you want to travel on the trend that was mostly paid Thursday, you want to be in favor. With Steelers, that means getting them much better now than they were a couple of days ago.

If you want to know what parts I like this week, you can find that information at the SportsLine link below, in which all my chipped parts appear during the season along with the five SuperContest picks every week and a lot of wonderful reviews from a fantastic collection of experts. You can also check out if all of our CBS Sport teams land on each game every week right here.

Every week in this space, I'll go behind the lines and help you give you a little deeper into what you should know before closing in your tracks. Let's get to that.

My suggestions

Until SportLine, I have a post on Thursday for week 10 and I will have much more until Friday night. Join now and use the WHITE promotional code for $ 1 in the first month and you can get me and every SportLine expert all year round, as well as those of my SuperControl every Saturday.

However, you can get a free pick with my weekly teaser at the end of this article. Enjoy!

Panthers at Steelers (-3.5)

Land Advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating: Steelers -3.5
Search Line: Steelers -6

Registration vs. spread 5-3 5-3
Different playhouses 0.4 0.8
Points for each crime class 7 12
Points per unit of defense per unit 20 14
TWO weighted 24.5 10.4
Submit the TWO rank 6 8
Switch to the TWO defense position 20 22
Flee TWO 1 12
Run the TWO defense rank 7 14

TWO is a great fan of this Panthers team, which ranks 3rd in the overall standings of the championship, based on their starting 6-2. Games on the difference of play happen differently, giving Steelers clear edge thanks to a defense that has the fifth in the net courts per permissible test and nine in rails per permissible rush.

What is the impressive finding of DVOA? Well, top top offense, along with the best offense from the 6th step in the league, will give you a fairly high ceiling, but the traditional numbers do not paint a pink picture of the passing game, try and you just a 300-meter game throughout the season. If the hurdle attack does not work in Carolina, the offense may be in trouble, and Steelers did not give up 100 meters on the field since week 2.

So which teams should you return to the NFL season's 10th week? And which competitor of the Super Bowl is getting great hope? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50% of the simulations, all in the pattern that exceeded 98% of the experts watched by NFLPickWatch.com in the last two seasons.

Invoices at Jets (-6.5)

The advantage for home: 3.5 points
Power rating: Jets -6.5
Line of sight: Jets -7

Registration vs. spread 3-6 3-6
Different playhouses -1.1 -0.2
Points for each crime class 32 28
Points per unit of defense per unit 21 3
TWO weighted -39.2 -14.3
Submit the TWO rank 32 29
Switch to the TWO defense position 3 6
Flee TWO 31 30
Run the TWO defense rank 10 11

My power rating assumes that both teams will use spare QBs in this match, but if Josh Allen is able to play, I think bills are of solid value here. The offense will go from bad to bad, and a Jets defense that is only 22nd in the adjusted sack rate will probably not have a monster game against the Bills overmatched.

Matchup has two terrible crimes against two defenses that the TWO occupy in the top seven (Bill II, Seventh Jets). No wonder the total for this game is a Marianas Trench level of 36.5 points. With such a low level, you almost have to enjoy bills if you can find them at 7 or better.

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Falconi (-4) at Browns

Benefits at Home: 2 points
Power Rating: Falcons -1.5
Search Line: Falconi -1

Registration vs. spread 3-5 5-4
Different playhouses 0.1 -1.0
Points for each crime class 4 29
Points per unit of defense per unit 30 11
TWO weighted -2.9 -22.1
Submit the TWO rank 4 30
Switch to the TWO defense position 28 2
Flee TWO 22 21
Run the TWO defense rank 31 30

Even if we gave Brown a weak edge in the field home, this line is looking. I have Browns as the 25th team in the power rating, and I can not put them under the leagues, because I think the defense is solid despite a string of harsh matches while the offense occurred with Baker Mayfield. I have the Falcons bound for the 12th with the Bears. Even with this gap and low HFA, the line works at Falcons -1.5

Defending Falcons may be exactly what Brownii has to do. It's hard to find a value that has something positive to say about the stop at Atlanta, so if the Browns defense can resist any resistance, the host team might be upset.

Saints (-5.5) in Bengal

Land Advantage: 2.5 points
Power Rating: Saints -4
View line: Saints -4

Registration vs. spread 6-2 4-4
Different playhouses -0.1 -0.6
Points for each crime class 2 9
Points per unit of defense per unit 29 28
TWO weighted 15.4 0.4
Submit the TWO rank 5 15
Switch to the TWO defense position 29 16
Flee TWO 10 16
Run the TWO defense rank 3 27

Saints make an excellent ATS record, but their YPP gap does not buy the best team in the league. The offense is excellent, reaching number four in total DVOA and ranking even behind the bosses in points per unit. But the defense has shown wounded by the good teams that have passed, ranking in the 31st place in the net courts on the trial allowed to go with 29 in the TWO. They also have an average of only 3.9 meters per test, good for the 27th place in the NFL, despite a strong TWO ranking.

Bengali are the type of team to hurt? They may have great days of passage, but the offensive ceiling descends without A.J. Verdant. And while the Bengali have raised large numbers against the Tampa Bay and Atlanta Gulf defeat, they also shot a boss against the bosses. Their efficacy through air will be the key to which the portion of this spread wins.

Redskins at Buccaneers (-3)

Land Advantage: 2.5 points
Power rating: Buccaneers -2.5
Lookahead line: pick them

Registration vs. spread 5-3 3-5
Different playhouses -0.3 -0.1
Points for each crime class 22 10
Points per unit of defense per unit 17 31
TWO weighted -5.8 -21.8
Submit the TWO rank 22 10
Switch to the TWO defense position 19 31
Flee TWO 15 25
Run the TWO defense rank 29 22

You can throw a lot of what the numbers say about this match with Washington dealing with the wounding injury on the offensive line. When the injury bug hits the same unit on a team, the problems the unit will have more compound than if the lesions were spread in different positions. So even if Bucs has the weakest defense in the league on the DVOA, we should expect the front to win the battle in the trenches here.

So it will be on Redskins' defense to slow down a talented Bucs offense passing fourth in the net yard on each try, in addition to 10 in the TWO. If Bucs breaks off on an offense like Atlanta did against Washington last week, play over.

Patriots (-6.5) at Titani

Benefits at home: 3 points
Rating of power: Patriots -4
Line of sight: Patriots -6

Registration vs. spread 6-3 5-3
Different playhouses 0.1 -0.7
Points for each crime class 6 25
Points per unit of defense per unit 12 6
TWO weighted 16.7 -9.3
Submit the TWO rank 7 26
Switch to the TWO defense position 18 24
Flee TWO 8 20
Run the TWO defense rank 8 16

The Titans allowed the slightest points in the league, while the Red Patriots won six in a row. Something has to give, and although the Titans defeat well on the surface, the TWO is not a fan, making it the 20th overall. Malcolm Butler has proved to be a workable responsibility in the second Titans, and Bill Belichick will take advantage of any weakness he can find. Despite a couple of blows against bosses and bears, the Patriots' defense played well during the game.

My power ratings believe this line is swollen, because the titans should be dogs of 4 points home in this match. But the four most serious games of the Patriots that he brought into play were the four games on the road. If the Titans can continue to limit their possessions and shine in the red area, it should remain within the number.

Dolphins at Packers (-9.5)

Benefits at home: 4 points
Power rating: Packer -9.5
Line of sight: n / a

Registration vs. spread 5-4 3-5
Different playhouses -0.5 0.5
Points for each crime class 26 16
Points per unit of defense per unit 19 18
TWO weighted 4.3 4.5
Submit the TWO rank 19 13
Switch to the TWO defense position 2. 3 21
Flee TWO 13 5
Run the TWO defense rank 17 26

The fact that Dolphins has a winning record after nine games despite these underlying statistics is quite impressive. You associate the wide mismatch in the YPP differential with the advantageous advantage of the Packers home field, and this should be a Packer Runaway cover, right?

Well, DVOA is a much bigger fan of dolphins, even practicing them with Packers season, despite a crime that took place under 175 feet twice this year, including last week's victory over Jets . Packers Defenders have had problems lately and, while you can not go wrong on the road and stop the Rams or the patriots, they were not really awesome before pa. Six out of eight Green Bay opponents scored between 29 and 31 points; if Dolphins get there, they'll cover.

Jaguari la Colts (-3)

Benefits at Home: 2 points
Power rating: Colts -2.5
View line: Colts -2.5

Registration vs. spread 3-5 4-4
Different playhouses 0.4 -0.2
Points for each crime class 30 8
Points per unit of defense per unit 10 2. 3
TWO weighted -4.2 4.4
Submit the TWO rank 27 18
Switch to the TWO defense position 7 25
Flee TWO 24 9
Run the TWO defense rank 9 13

Talks about the encounter of two opposites. Jaguars can not make too many attacks these days and certainly does not seem able to take advantage of Indy's weakness against the passage. Corners managed to score at least 34 points in four of the last five matches and while Andrew Luck demonstrated he can do it with the arm, it is the game that exploded in the last two games. Jaguars play a good defense against the round and the pass, so it's not the case because Colts will find a way to move the ball consistently.

Jaguars have won four of the last five in this series, but Colts won six just before this run, and Jags has to face a Colts team coached by Frank Reich, so these trends will not mean much if anything. The Jaguars also faced a lot of QQ's Colts that have not been named Andrew Luck in recent years while he was hurt.

Lions in bears (-6.5)

The advantage for home: 3.5 points
Rating of power: Bear -6.5
Line of sight: Bears -4

Registration vs. spread 5-3 5-3
Different playhouses -0.5 0.5
Points for each crime class 15 11
Points per unit of defense per unit 26 1
TWO weighted -19.3 22.4
Submit the TWO rank 21 14
Switch to the TWO defense position 30 4
Flee TWO 17 7
Run the TWO defense rank 29 2

Both YPP and DVOA say the Bears are a superior team for Lions. While you can imagine the power, strength and weakness of weakness with these crimes and defenses, the bears have an offense as good as the Lions, if not better according to some metrics. The defense of the Lions, on the other hand, is obviously the worst unit in this game, with the four straight heads in both defense and fast defense, per TWO.

The aging problem for Lions is that the Bears had practiced Khalil Mack and Allen Robinson entirely on Wednesday, and both could be prepared to come back from a lack of several weeks. The Lions, on the other hand, have just traded far the most reliable receiver and the offense was predictably predicted against the Vikings last week.

Cardinali la Chiefs (-16.5)

Benefits at home: 3 points
Power rating: Chiefs -13
View line: Heads -14.5

Registration vs. spread 4-3-1 8-1
Different playhouses -1.0 0.9
Points for each crime class 31 1
Points per unit of defense per unit 15 27
TWO weighted -32.5 43.2
Submit the TWO rank 31 1
Switch to the TWO defense position 8 14
Flee TWO 32 4
Run the TWO defense rank 12 32

My power ratings are quite conservative when we talk about huge lines and I do not think the Cardinals are among the weakest league teams. But I'm not in a hurry to take the points against a crime that has a historical role. The Football Outsiders team said on Tuesday that the bosses had the third offense they chased (in 1986) after nine matches in a season.

Josh Rosen and the company may have the chance to have a backdoor in the second half, saying they have dropped by 34-14. But can the crime go? If not for bad-law, cardinals would easily have the biggest offense in the league, per DVOA. The 321-meter offense they had against the 49 players in their last game before the break was the first time they reached 270. The best way to attack bosses is to flee, but the Cardinals climb on the last position in the league, the TWO and the construction sites on transport, and have not yet managed a 100-meter game on the field. Not from a player, but as a team. Good luck finding a way to this game being competitive.

Loader (-9.5) at Raiders

Benefits at home: 3 points
Power rating: Chargers -8.5
Viewing line: Loaders -7.5

Registration vs. spread 4-4 2-6
Different playhouses 1.3 -1.1
Points for each crime class 5 27
Points per unit of defense per unit 13 32
TWO weighted 21.4 -30.0
Submit the TWO rank 2 16
Switch to the TWO defense position 13 32
Flee TWO 6 27
Run the TWO defense rank 20 25

This seems to be as much a mismatch as the Cardinals-Chiefs game, but with his favorite on the road instead of home. Will it matter? Raiders came home against Browns in their only season win, but lost at least 14 points in each of the four games ever since. It takes some trying to be worse than Bucs in terms of crossing the defense, but the Raiders have succeeded.

Instead, chargers have the best YPP differential in the league, due to a crime almost as good as that of bosses and a defense that is good and better than mediocre. They won home 26-10 against the Raiders in the 5th week, and we could be in for a similar result here.

Seahawks at Rams (-9.5)

Benefits at home: 3 points
Power rating: Rams -9.5
Viewing line: Rams -8

Registration vs. spread 4-3-1 4-5
Different playhouses -0.2 0.9
Points for each crime class 14 3
Points per unit of defense per unit 5 22
TWO weighted 12.6 29.7
Submit the TWO rank 11 3
Switch to the TWO defense position 5 12
Flee TWO 14 2
Run the TWO defense rank 15 24

The Ramses were a juggernaut before the fall of the saints last week, but they actually had trouble covering large numbers this year. Besides a slight victory over the 49-year-old, the Ramsii did not cover the closing number at Week 3. While the crime was chugging along, the defense had problems this year, and especially the rush defense as something that can be exploited by a Seattle offense that has exceeded 150 feet in five consecutive matches.

The Seahawks brought 31 points in the first encounter between these two teams, and there was nothing fluctuating about him; they did not start on the Rams side of the field once the game, and three of the four TDs went at least 74 meters. If I can achieve complete crime performance, this game has good chances to stay again.

Cowboys at Eagles (-7)

The advantage for home: 3.5 points
Power rating: Eagles -7.5
Viewing line: Eagles -6

Registration vs. spread 3-5 3-5
Different playhouses 0.2 -0.3
Points for each crime class 2. 3 17
Points per unit of defense per unit 4 7
TWO weighted -6.1 -11.3
Submit the TWO rank 28 20
Switch to the TWO defense position 26 9
Flee TWO 11 18
Run the TWO defense rank 4 2. 3

The last time these two teams met, Dallas won 6-0. Should we expect another delay? While both defenses played much better than their counterpart, the DVOA is not impressed by the Cowboys passers-by, and Eagles may have a difficult time to slow down Ezekiel Elliott with their defenses.

Cowboys scored a total of 28 points in the last three games against this defense, and a similar offensive will not do it. Golden Tate captured all eight targets for 132 meters and two attacks against this defense at the beginning of the year, and Eagles could try to exploit what worked in the Lions match.

Giants to 49ers (-3)

Benefits at Home: 2 points
Power rating: 49ers -2.5
Search Line: 49ers -2.5

Registration vs. spread 3-5 3-6
Different playhouses -0.1 0.1
Points for each crime class 24 18
Points per unit of defense per unit 25 24
TWO weighted -13.3 -18.0
Submit the TWO rank 2. 3 25
Switch to the TWO defense position 27 17
Flee TWO 2. 3 26
Run the TWO defense rank 18 19

Are you ready for football? Nick Mullens will try to recapture the magic of his prime against what is on the paper a more defensive game, but not much. The giants could be 1-7, but five of these losses were seven points or less, so they know how to play against most teams. The 49-year-old do not have a particularly strong defense, so if Eli Manning and the company find any kind of struggle, the figures will be right to do that.

TWO thinks the giants are the slightly better team, and when you pair it with the 49ers field advantage below the average, this could be ripe for annoyance.

Teaser of the Week

Bears -0.5 vs. Lions
Loaders -3.5 at Raiders

Bears are an easy call this week, given the wild mismatch in statistics between the two teams and Chicago, who have received stars back on both sides of the ball this week. The second leg of the teaser is a bit harder, and even if we do not go through 3 with the chargers, it feels like a safe call against a Raiders team who gave up. Eagles are worth considering here if all they have to do is defeat cowboys at home with a huge disparity of rest.

The teaser of the week is 5-4 after the Rams could not keep it in a score against the saints. That hurt.


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